Testing Times

Background Information

The following summary of events leading up to the opening of the Scottish Parliament is reproduced by permission of Colin Murray.

1997

March–April

John Major calls a general election, with the ‘New’ Labour party under Tony Blair well ahead in the polls.

The Tory campaign is harmed by disunity on the issue of Europe. Major tries to hold together a party apparently determined to rip itself apart. Overall the Tories look tired, disunited, and ridden with sleaze – Neil Hamilton’s candidature in Tatton a constant reminder of the latter throughout the campaign.

Labour look fresh and safe under Tony Blair, and after 18 years of Tory rule, the mood for change is very strong.

Opinion polls give Labour a large lead throughout the campaign, but the figures are questioned by all the parties. Labour is wary after its disappointment in 1992.

There is some concern that Blair’s appeal to middle England will alienate traditional Labour voters in Scotland. While Labour’s lead in the polls in Scotland seems solid, the SNP hope that it is ‘soft’. The SNP line in Scotland differs from previous elections in the 1980s and 1992: no longer ‘don’t vote Labour, they can’t win in England’; but ‘vote SNP, Labour will win anyway’.

The Tories retain a hard anti-devolutionist line, hoping to emulate the apparently successful ‘defence of the Union’ campaign of 1992.

1 May 1997

Labour win a landslide victory, with a Commons majority of 179, larger than that of the historic Labour victory of 1945 and even Margaret Thatcher’s landslide of 1983 following the Falklands war.

Any doubts about Labour’s and Tony Blair’s appeal in Scotland prove groundless. Labour win 56 of the 72 seats, including the Tory stronghold of Eastwood, the long-cherished Ayr, and the defeat of Michael Forsyth in Stirling.

The Tories are wiped out in Scotland and Wales. In Scotland, three Cabinet Ministers – Forsyth, Lang and Rifkind – are dumped, and leave active front-line politics. Scotland becomes ‘Tory-free’, astonishing for a party which won over half of the Scottish vote in 1955.

The SNP pick up six seats and a respectable 22% of the vote. But again they fail to make any significant impact in the Labour heartlands of the central belt.

The Liberal Democrats demonstrate their ability to do well under the ‘first past the post’ system they detest, winning 10 seats with 13% of the vote.

In Scotland, as elsewhere, there is clear evidence that tactical voting has played a part in the Tories’ defeat. All former opposition parties take some heart from the result, but it is undeniably Labour’s night.

After the long decades of talk and no progress, it seems certain now that Scotland will have its own Parliament.

UK: Labour 43.2% (418 seats), Conservative 30.7% (165), Liberal Democrats 16.8% (46), Nationalists 2.5% (10), others 6.8% (20). Scotland: Labour 45.6% (56), SNP 22.1% (6), Conservatives 17.5% (0), Liberal Democrats 13% (10).

May

Donald Dewar, a lifelong devolutionist, lawyer and friend of the late John Smith, is asked to become Secretary of State for Scotland and to see through the Home Rule legislation. The appointment appears to remove any doubts about Labour’s commitment to move quickly on Home Rule. It is time for Dewar to complete his old friend’s ‘unfinished business’.

John Major immediately resigns as Tory leader, forcing the shell-shocked party into a leadership campaign. Such is the scale of the Tories’ defeat that only 165 MPs will determine the new leader, and none of these represent seats in either Scotland or Wales.

15 May: the new Government’s first bill is the Referendum (Scotland and Wales) Bill, enabling the referendum on the Parliament to be held on 11 September. The SNP are unhappy because they want a question on independence as an option; and the Liberal Democrats are unhappy with the inclusion of a separate second question on taxation powers.

On the same day, Scotland Forward is launched as a co-ordinating cross-party campaign for a Yes-Yes vote. The SNP leadership gives it a warm welcome but not formal support at this stage.

June

19 June: William Hague, the 36-year-old MP for Richmond, defeats former Chancellor Kenneth Clark in the final ballot to become the new Tory leader. The campaign reveals that Tory divisions on Europe are far from healed. The Tory leadership election is effectively an English affair, with not a single home-based Scot eligible to vote. A poll of Scottish constituency chairmen suggests that Clark would have been the clear choice of the Scottish party, with 56 votes to Hague’s 10.

25 June: Labour suspends Govan MP Mohammed Sarwar for ‘breach of party rules’, sparking a long-running controversy.

July

24 July: The White Paper on Home Rule is published. It is largely seen as a triumph for Dewar, as he delivers almost all of the package promised in the Convention’s ‘Claim of Right for Scotland’. It is a ‘maximum’ version of devolution with the reserved powers of Westminster detailed. The only controversial areas of legislation retained are those relating to broadcasting, abortion and drugs. Dewar’s mastery of the detail of the subject is seen to have triumphed over the scepticism of some of his Cabinet colleagues – most notably Jack Straw. The White Paper is a surprising best-seller: HMSOs biggest-selling publication since the Profumo Report.

The SNP announces that it will support the Yes-Yes campaign in the referendum. Although apparently left with little choice, there are dissenting voices in the party, who see this as a compromise, endorsing Labour and not their own policy. Some view it as a ‘rigged referendum’ as it does not involve a question on full independence. But Alex Salmond’s line that devolution is the stepping-stone to independence prevails.

31 July

The Referendum (Scotland and Wales) Act is given royal assent.

August–September

The referendum campaign gets off to a slow start, partly due to the tail end of the summer holidays and some post-election fatigue. It is put on hold following the death of Princess Diana just 11 days before the poll. There are even suggestions it may have to be postponed. There is little effective No campaigning.

The Yes-Yes campaign – a ‘partnership’ of Labour, SNP and the Liberal Democrats – is largely seen as uninspiring. Unity between the parties is fragile – particularly between Labour and the SNP. Salmond is widely credited as the ‘star’ of the campaign. Sean Connery, later to be vilified by the Labour press, jets in to lend the campaign some glamour.

The No campaign – with the slogan ‘think twice’ – is low-key. It is supported by the Tories, but few Scottish politicians are involved. The public face of the campaign is the flamboyant advocate and vice-chairman of Rangers, Donald Findlay. Brian Montieth is seen as the ‘brains’ of the campaign.

Despite the apparent imbalance between the campaigns, there is still considerable nervousness in the Yes-Yes campaign on the second question – the power to vary income tax by up to 3p in the pound. It is largely seen as a tax rise and potentially unpopular. Labour vow not to use this power in the new parliament’s first term, but this begs the inevitable question: ‘If you’re not going to use it, why have it?’

An ‘off the record’ briefing by Alastair Campbell on 4 September indicates that Blair would be happy with a No vote on the second question. This is later denied.

There is also concern about a low turnout, which would cast doubts on the Scots’ real commitment to Home Rule. (The turnout in a similar referendum in 1979 had been only 40%.)

Gordon McMaster, MP for Paisley South, commits suicide. His suicide note implicates Labour Party colleagues – notably fellow MP Tommy Graham – in a ‘dirty tricks’ campaign. An investigation is begun, which eventually leads to Graham’s expulsion from the Labour Party in September 1998. This is one of several ‘sleaze’ strories to plague the Scottish Labour Party in the coming months.

11 September: Both questions are given a resounding Yes by the Scottish people: 74.3% (3 to 1) on the principle of a Scottish Parliament, and 63.5% (2 to 1) for tax-raising powers. The turnout (over 60%) is respectable; and importantly, unlike in 1979, virtually all of Scotland votes for the Parliament – not just the central belt.

Dewar’s relief at the count is palpable as the critical second result from South Lanarkshire signals a clear victory on both questions.

Even as the results are coming in, the fragile unity of the Yes campaign begins to crack. The old fault lines will soon reappear. But now there is no doubt: Scotland will have its first parliament for 300 years.

Tony Blair’s controversial decision to hold a two-question referendum, widely criticised by Home Rulers, appears to be vindicated.

Scotland voted for its parliament exactly 700 years to the day after William Wallace had driven the English armies into the Forth at the crucial Battle of Stirling Bridge.

18 September: The significance of the Scottish result is emphasised, as Wales votes by only a whisker, and on a very low turnout, for a devolved Assembly in Cardiff.

19 December: The Scotland Bill is published. The first clause is simple and direct: ‘There shall be a Scottish Parliament.’

1997 is a very significant year in Scottish political history.

1998

February

Sean Connery’s knighthood is blocked by Dewar. This is seen as a petty-minded and vindictive reaction to Connery’s support for the SNP.

March

20 March: It is decided to house a temporary parliament in Edinburgh. This ends a feud between Glasgow and Edinburgh politicians, widely seen as divisive, unnecessary and badly handled by Dewar. The competence of Dewar’s advisers is called into question.

May–June

Huge deficits are discovered in the Direct Labour Organisations (DLOs) of North Lanarkshire and East Ayrshire Councils. The incident generates a very hostile press: is this a foretaste of a Labour-dominated Scottish Parliament? Dewar is forced to act quickly. He orders the closure of the North Lanarkshire DLO. But this results in large potential job losses and provokes a backlash from trades unions. The Labour leadership tries to force the resignation of the North Lanarkshire leader, Harry McGuigan. Dewar appears not to be in control of the situation, but McGuigan eventually resigns.

July

The SNP’s rise in poularity, evident since early 1998, increases further as Labour’s crises accumulate. One poll shows SNP support at 48%, with a 14% lead over Labour. It suggests that the SNP are within a handful of seats of an overall majority in the first Holyrood Parliament. Salmond’s strategy on the referendum seems vindicated, and there is a sense that Scotland may be heading inexorably towards independence. Many in the Labour Party are concerned at Dewar’s ‘loss of confidence’.

August

Labour launches its ‘summer of scrutiny’ strategy. ‘London’ Labour takes control and starts to scrutinise the reality of independence in detail. Millbank is appalled at the ineptitude of Scottish Labour’s response to the SNP’s surge in popularity. Labour’s strategy seems to work: in the autumn the SNP begins to fall back in the polls. By the end of the year, polls suggest that the two main parties are neck-and-neck in the race for Holyrood. However, across 1998 as a whole, the SNP outperformed Labour in the polls by an average of 41% to 38%.

September

Labour begins its delayed process of selecting its first-past-the-post candidates for Holyrood. The process is acrimonious and results in unfavourable press. There are concerns about the effective culling of candidates not toeing the party line, and the imposition of candidates against the will of the local constituencies. Three sitting Westminster MPs – Canavan, Davidson and Connarty – are not selected. The selection process drags on to the end of the year.

6 September: David McLetchie, a little-known Edinburgh lawyer, becomes leader of the Tories in Scotland. He is the UK leadership’s preferred candidate, and narrowly resists a late surge in support for former Ayr MP Phil Gaillie (91 votes to 83). McLetchie tries to put the Tories’ past hostility to devolution behind them, and vows that the Tories will strive to make the Parliament work to defend the Union.

November

19 November: The Scotland Act receives royal assent. 2025 amendments have been discussed, but the Act broadly translates the White Paper into legislation. Dewar, writing in the Scotsman, comments: ‘It has been, for me, a very personal journey.’

26 November: Labour is rocked by a very poor performance in the North East Euro by-election triggered by the death of Dr Allan McCartney. The SNP hold the seat comfortably, and Labour, who on the basis of the 1997 general election result should have had a good chance of victory, are pushed into a humiliating third place. There is widespread criticism of the centrally-imposed Labour candidate Kathleen Walker Shaw, whose campaign was marred by inappropriate remarks about the SNP and racism.

1999

January

The Scottish election campaign effectively begins. An opinion poll on 18 January puts Labour and the SNP neck-and-neck. There is apparently all to play for. But thereafter a clear Labour lead begins to emerge in the polls.

March

17 March: Gordon Brown’s ‘give-away’ budget is seen in part as a response to the forthcoming Scottish election. There is a generally favourable response. Most surprisingly, and significantly for the Scottish election, Brown announces a 1p cut in the basic rate of income tax. Some see this as masterstroke, forcing a response from the SNP on the ‘tartan tax’.

20 March: The SNP responds by announcing it will not implement the 1p tax cut if it wins control at Holyrood. It launches its ‘penny for Scotland’ campaign, saying the money will be used for much-needed expenditure in education, housing and hospitals. It is a defining moment in the Scottish election, and puts taxation and spending at the top of the campaign agenda. Labour emphasise that the SNP’s policy would mean Scots paying more tax than the English, and that this is only a foretaste of the implications of full independence. Some of the ‘fundamentalist’ wing of the SNP are also uncomfortable with the SNP policy, arguing that it plays into Labour’s hands by making use of the limited fiscal powers given to Holyrood.

After months of negotiations, NATO launches air strikes against Yugoslavia in response to ‘ethnic cleansing’ in Kosovo. The Scottish election campaigns are fought against the backdrop of war in Europe.

The significance of the Kosovo War to the Scottish election is accentuated when Alex Salmond condemns NATO’s actions as ‘unpardonable folly’. His comments provoke a sustained outburst of personal criticism from all the other main parties, with Robin Cook labelling Salmond the ‘toast of Belgrade’. It is certainly a risky strategy for Salmond. Some critics suggest it is a desperate response to falling ratings in the opinion polls and a growing Labour lead.

April–May

The campaign proper starts with Labour well ahead in the polls but short of the level of support needed to form a majority Government. A coalition Government between Labour and the Liberal Democrats seems the most likely outcome.

The SNP campaign starts badly, with Alex Salmond apparently off form. The party is caught with two manifestos – one for the Parliament and one for a fully independent Scotland. The result is confusion and the opportunity for Labour to suggest the SNP are trying to downplay their central objective of independence, which is placed tenth on a list of key policies. The SNP also face an almost universally hostile press – particularly the tabloids. In mid campaign they are rocked by a Herald ‘superpoll’ headlined ‘SNP in Freefall’. It suggests that SNP support is collapsing and Labour could after all be on the verge of outright victory. The response is to ‘get the jaikets’ off and take to the streets. A daily campaign paper is launched to try to balance the mainstream media, and Sean Connery visits to lend a hand. The approach appears to steady the ship.

Labour run a largely negative campaign on the dangers of independence. Its early campaign ‘Divorce’ PPB is one of the most blatantly negative broadcasts in political history. It does, however, emphasise the experience of Donald Dewar, and also reinforces the fact that Labour delivered the Parliament. The SNP allege that Labour's campaign is run from London, making a mockery of the idea of devolution, and posit a choice between ‘Scotland’s Party and London Labour’. Chancellor Gordon Brown and his aides are seen as the main force behind the campaign. Labour take heart from the superpoll, but ironically it may have worked against them, as voters – particularly on their second vote – saw the prospect of a Labour majority and stepped back.

From a low base, the Tories run a relatively effective and humorous campaign. David McLetchie emerges as a somewhat surprising star on the hustings. The polls marginally improve throughout the campaign, but there is never any suggestion of a serious Tory revival. Ironically however, the proportional voting system, to which the Tories are so hostile, guarantees the Party will have significant representation in the new Parliament.

The Liberal Democrats suffer from constant taunts of coalition deals with Labour, and struggle to maintain their own identity. In an attempt to distinguish their approach, they put clear water between themselves and Labour on issues such as tuition fees, education spending and PFI.

Overall the campaign is seen as largely uninspiring and fails to ignite.

6 May: For all the efforts during the campaign, the overall outcome is somewhat predictable. Labour are comfortably the largest party but well short of an overall majority; the SNP are a clear but distant second, with a large block of MSPs; the Liberal Democrats hold the balance of power; and the Tories are back on the political map thanks to proportional representation.

Overall results: Labour 39% (56); SNP 29% (35); Conservatives xx% (18); Liberal Democrats xx% (17); others xx% (3).

There is something good and bad for all the main parties in the results:

Labour won, with by far the largest number of MSPs. But it fell well short of the 65 seats needed to form a majority Government and saw its overall vote down by 7% from 1997.

The SNP gained 7% from 1997 and ended up with 35 MSPs – by far the largest number of nationally elected representatives it has ever had. But the high hopes signalled by their opinion poll position of mid-1998 were not realised. The SNP was a distant second to Labour and again failed to break through in the first-past-the-post seats in central Scotland. And in seats such as Govan and Ochil, where the average swing would have meant victory, Labour still saw off the SNP threat.

The Tories were back on the national map with a block of 18 MSPs, considerably more than the opinion polls were suggesting earlier in the year. But again they failed to win any first-past-the-post seats and overall their share of the vote was down further from the disastrous 1997 General Election campaign.

The Liberal Democrats came last but ended up within reach of a share of power.

The results also gave comfort to some of the smaller parties whose representatives will surely add some flavour to the new Parliament. Dennis Canavan, controversially rejected by Labour as not good enough, won a landslide personal victory against the official Labour candidate in Falkirk West. Robin Harper became the first ever nationally elected Green anywhere in the UK and Tommy Sheridan kept the red flag flying by winning a seat on the Glasgow list.

Despite the comments afterwards, the results must have been close to those anticipated by the architects of the new electoral system. Scotland had balance and variety, and no party could now have things all their own way.

Immediately after the results came in, the negotiations began as Labour and the Liberal Democrats began talks on coalition. Some difficult issues were thrashed out – particularly on the thorny issue of tuition fees – and after a number of late nights, Donald Dewar and Jim Wallace signed the historic ‘Partnership Agreement’ signalling a coalition Government.

12 May: New MSPs are sworn in. David Steel is voted in as the first Speaker of the Scottish Parliament. This is the 5th anniversary of John Smith’s death.

13 May: Dewar is voted First Minister, and Wallace is installed as his deputy. The Partnership Agreement is signed.

17 May: The composition of the first Cabinet is announced. There are two Lib Dem members.

20 May: First Cabinet meeting is held.

1 July: The official opening of the Scottish Parliament takes place, beginning the transfer of powers from Westminster.

Early 2000: Full transfer of devolved powers from Westminster.

(Reproduced by permission of Colin Murray.)